The Political Perspective: National Polls Finally Showing Signs of Red Wave
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Jarrett Borkowski
On November 8, 2022, millions of people will report to their local voting site to cast their vote for the 2022 Midterms. While the presidency might not be on the docket, the midterms have always been the time when we see major shifts in the makeup of Congress and on the state level.
After months of speculation and delay, nationwide polls are showing a shift toward a red wave. Many predicted a large political victory in 2022 for Republicans. While polls have shown a political shift to the right, it has been underwhelming so far this election season for the GOP. As of right now, FiveThirtyEight currently has the Democrats winning the US Senate, something that Republicans really are hoping to gain control of. While it seemed that Republicans were virtually guaranteed to gain control of the House of Representatives, they are currently sitting at a 71% chance to win it. While that is substantial, it isn’t nearly as locked up as the GOP would like. However, certain key races have seen shifts recently in favor of the GOP. For Republicans, these recent shifts are hopeful signs of improvements to come.
In Wisconsin, the senate race between incumbent Ron Johnson (R) and Mandela Barnes (D) has been highly contested, or so we thought. A recent study from Marquette University Law School (A/B pollster) has Ron Johnson up 6 points over Barnes. This is the largest margin of victory for either candidate so far. This poll echoes a trend that has seen Johnson on the uprise. Six of the last seven polls done on the Wisconsin Senate race had Johnson up over Barnes. The only poll that didn’t have Johnson up was a poll from Public Policy Polling that had the two candidates dead even.
In Nevada, a seat that seemed safe for Democrats a few months ago, the polls now show that the race is a complete toss-up. Back on September 12th, incumbent Catherine Cortez-Masto(D) had a 63% chance of winning the seat. Now, a month later, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Cortez-Masto a 51% chance of winning. A large reason why is that Republican ad campaigns have started to air in Nevada in Spanish. Nevada hosts a large Hispanic population that is bubble voters. This means that they are in the bubble of voting Democrat or Republican. With the slew of new ads targeted towards a must-win demographic, the GOP has seen a boost in recent polls. Six of the last seven polls have Adam Laxalt, the Republican challenger, leading over Cortez-Masto.
Another area where Republicans have made up ground is in the Wisconsin Governor Race. At his peak on August 16th, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers had an 80% chance of being reelected. Since then, his lead has shrunk down and he now has a 59% chance of winning. A main reason for this is that the polls taken during the second half of September have been released and showed a dramatic closing of the gap between Evers and challenger Tim Michels(R). From September 19th to September 30th, Evers’ chances of winning went from 70% to 60%.
The current landscape is looking shaky for Democrats. While pollsters have seemed to overestimate the winning parties' chances in recent years, it's hard to deny clear shifts that have happened over the past 2 weeks.
