The Political Perspective: Recent Polls Show Tightening In Wisconsin Races
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Recent Polls Show Tightening In Wisconsin Races
Jarrett Borkowski
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On November 8, 2022, millions of people will report to their local voting site to cast their vote for the 2022 Midterms. While the presidency might not be on the docket, the midterms have always been the time when we see major shifts in the makeup of Congress and on the state level.
New polls released by Siena College, Trafalgar Group, and Emerson College show little change in both the Wisconsin Governor’s Race and Wisconsin Senate Race according to FiveThirtyEight. A recent poll from Siena College (an A-graded pollster) currently gives Tony Evers (D) a 5-point lead over Tim Michels (R). The poll was taken between the 14th and 15th of September and polled 651 likely voters. An Emerson College (A-) poll of 860 likely voters between September 16th and 18th gave Tony Evers a 2-point lead over Michels. The final poll released was from Trafalgar Group (A- with Republican funding) and showed that from 1,087 likely voters, Michels held a 1-point lead over incumbent Governor Evers. This, in turn, has resulted in Tony Evers from having a 68% chance of winning to a 66% chance of winning. This small change is likely the result of the recent polls released favoring Tony Evers less and less as the number of participants went up.
The same pollsters all did polls for the Wisconsin Senate Race. Siena College had Mandela Barnes (D) up 1-point. However, Emerson College and Trafalgar Group had Senator Ron Johnson (R) up 4-points and 2-points respectively. This has signaled a shift towards Ron Johnson in recent weeks. The most likely reason is the slew of ads that have been released to target Mandela Barnes. The Senate Leadership Fund, which is affiliated with Republicans, has spent over $5 million in the first two weeks of September, with just over $3 million going towards TV ads.
One of the largest ads has been of the grandmother of a girl who was seriously injured in the Waukesha Christmas Parade attack last year. The woman, who is visibly emotional, speaks in a shaky voice about how her granddaughter was struck. She then attacks Mandela Barnes for his claimed desire to eliminate cash bail. The suspect in the attack was released from jail two days before the attack after posting a $1,000 bail. It is meant to show how Barnes is “weak on crime.”
Shorter ads have also been put out to attack Barnes for being too lenient on crime. These ads have been very effective and seem to have had the effect Republicans and the Johnson campaign wanted, having given the incumbent a boost in the recent polls.
Wisconsin is still far out from the election on November 8th, but it already seems that we will be waiting well into the night and possibly into the following day before we have a result in either of these high stake races. If you are 18 by election day, remember to register to vote at myvote.wi.gov to make sure your voice is heard.
