The Political Perspective
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Jarrett Borkowski
On November 8, 2022, millions of people will report to their local voting site to cast their vote for the 2022 Midterms. While the presidency might not be on the docket, the midterms have always been the time where we see major shifts in the makeup of Congress. In 2018, the House of Representatives flipped towards Democrats as a result of the unfavorability of Donald Trump. In 2014, Republicans increased their majority in the House and took control of the Senate in the middle of Barack Obama’s second term. In 2010, Republicans saw a red wave take over the House as a result of the election of President Obama. This pattern has been consistent for decades. Whenever a president is elected, voters for the opposing party tend to gain traction. It could be because the President is unpopular, or it could be because opposition voters are fired up to vote while the President’s voting base is more relaxed with someone they elected in the oval office.
In Wisconsin, a war zone is forming. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 20,000 votes, making it one of the narrowest margins in the 2020 election. This year, two elections are gaining national attention in Wisconsin. One is the Governor’s race between the incumbent, Democrat Tony Evers, and his challenger, Republican businessman Tim Michaels. The other is the highly contested US Senate race between incumbent Ron Johnson (R) and Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor, Mandela Barnes (D). According to FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe Model, Tony Evers currently has a 68% chance of winning the Governor’s seat. The Senate seat is much closer. Ron Johnson currently has a 51% chance of remaining in office.
It should be noted what exactly FiveThirtyEight is, as it will be used consistently throughout future weekly additions. FiveThirtyEight is a polling service that doesn’t actually poll people, but mainly looks at polls released from other companies. It measures the group’s bias and accuracy from the past, and gives them a grade. They will then look at every poll and create a general forecast. Polls with a higher grade (say A-) will weigh in more than a lower grade (a C+). So, when they say a candidate has a higher chance of winning, it means that more and/or higher graded pollsters have that candidate winning. They also take into account fundraising, traditional voting patterns, and experts’ ratings.
In the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, Tony Evers is seen as slightly favored to win the Governorship. The main reasons for this are because of the unfavorability of Tim Michaels, even among some Republicans. This is after a bitter battle for the Republican Michels and former Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor under Scott Walker, Rebecca Kleefisch. Kleefisch was seen as a more moderate candidate while Michels embraced the populist style that has become the leading political style in the Republican party since the election of Donald Trump back in 2016. Because of the tight race between Kleefisch and Michels, many stalwart Republicans, the John McCain and Mitt Romney voters, have been put off by the nature of new age Republicans. Tony Evers is a moderate democrat, so he could, in turn, draw some moderate Republicans to support him.
As for the Senate race, both candidates are on the more extreme ends of the political spectrum. Ron Johnson has been an extreme vocal supporter of Donald Trump within the past few years. Mandela Barnes, while not an extreme socialist, has been in favor of many progressive changes to the country seen as more extreme than the average Democratic candidate, specifically when it comes to unionization.
I doesn’t matter if you will be voting blue, red, yellow, green, black, white, pink, purple. Democracy works best when the voters are informed. The Political Perspective is meant to provide you with unbiased news about the upcoming elections and its candidates, but it's your job to do the voting part. Now some of you may be asking, “I am 18 (or will be by election day) but I don’t know how to vote. How do I make sure my voice is heard in this upcoming election?” These are important questions to be asking. So, how do you vote in the next upcoming election?
Registering to vote is an easy process. First, go to myvote.wi.gov. There you will find five blue bubbles. You should click on the fourth bubble labeled, “Register To Vote.” Upon clicking that page, you will be directed to put in your name and date of birth. This will check to see if you are registered yet. If it says you are registered, contact your parent or legal guardian to ask them if they registered you already. If they haven’t, contact your local Municipal Clerk to resolve the issue. If it says you aren’t registered, click the button directed. You can then follow the seven step process to register.
Voting is one of the most important civic duties in the United States of America. It is important to know who exactly one is voting for. Even if you cannot vote in the upcoming election, getting to know the beliefs of political parties will make you a well informed voter in the future. The Political Perspective is meant to be a tool that guides and informs the voter in an unbiased manner to create a more fair and proper election process by providing polls, candidate statements, and other news surrounding a multitude of elections all in one place.
