The Political Perspective: Republicans Look Primed To Win Big
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Jarrett Borkowski
It's been a long road to the 2022 Midterms, and while for a second it looked like Democrats could put up a decent fight, the polls have now fallen back on predictions, and Republicans look primed to take both chambers of Congress. This penultimate edition of The Political Perspective revolving around the 2022 Midterms will break down the latest polls in Wisconsin and other key races.
In Wisconsin, Republicans, for the first time, are now favored to win both the Senate seat up for grabs and the Governor’s Mansion. According to FiveThirtyEight, on September 13, 2022, Ron Johnson held a slim 0.2 point lead over Mandela Barnes, but since then, Johnson has run away in the polls and now has a 79% chance of winning the seat. This has been highlighted by an extremely dysfunctional campaign from Barnes. It is quite shocking that Johnson, one of the most unpopular senators in the entire country, is so easily favored to win. Barnes was easily the most popular candidate for Democrats, but his campaign has refused to go on the offensive. Watching campaign ads, it is clear that the Democrats are leaning heavily into Roe v. Wade and abortion laws. However, that has fallen out of the news in the past month and a half. This has been reflected in the polls. As Roe v. Wade fell out of the news and Democrats continued to run ads surrounding it, the polls showed a steady trend towards Republicans as the left refused to switch up their strategy. As for Republicans, they have consistently run ads targeting Democrats, specifically Mandela Barnes, as weak on crime, one of the hottest issues on the ballot.
In the other Wisconsin race, it is a total toss-up between Tony Evers and Tim Michaels. The Evers campaign has fared much better in their ad campaigns. They have targeted Michaels on how his company has been run, specifically involving the reported dismissal of multiple sexual assault claims. It appears that this more offensive approach with their ad campaigns has boosted Evers’ chances of winning and is an example of how Democrats could look to run effective campaigns in this current environment. Even with this, the tightness of the race speaks volumes on how favorable the current political landscape is for Republicans.
Throughout the rest of the country, there are a variety of races capturing the attention of the nation. Starting in Pennsylvania, the Senate race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz is a close race that is also a toss-up. For most of the campaign season, Fetterman has led the race easily, having sat at an 83% chance of winning the seat back in September 24, 2022. However, it has gone all downhill for the Fetterman campaign since. The official collapse can be pointed to the disastrous debate performance by Fetterman. The Lieutenant Governor suffered a stroke in the spring of 2022, and he is still recovering from the ordeal. As a result, he looked quite incapable of being a US Senator on the debate stage. Currently, Fetterman holds a microscopic 0.4 point lead over Oz.
The rest of the nation has seen tightening races. In New Hampshire, an 8.6 point lead for Democrats on October 2 is now a 2.0 lead. In Georgia, a race that has gained national notoriety, a 4.7 point lead for Democrats on October 17 has turned into a 0.1 point lead for Republicans. It should be noted that, in Georgia, if neither candidate reaches 50%, there will be a runoff later. This happened last election cycle with both Senate races that took place. On September 9, 2022, Democrats had a 3.8 point lead over Republicans in Colorado’s Senate race, but Republicans now hold a 1.2 point lead. Even Arizona is close, which was thought to be a safe seat for Democrats with popular Senator Mark Kelly, a former astronaut. That race now sits at a 1.9 point lead for Kelly.
Other races that favored Republicans but looked very close have since switched to clear favorable victories for Republicans. In North Carolina, on September 15, Democrat Cheri Beasley had a 0.4 point lead over Republican Ted Budd. Now, Budd holds a 3.9 point lead. In Ohio, while Republican JD Vance has been generally favored, Democrat Tim Ryan held a lead as large as 4.5 points on August 11. However, Vance has shot up in the polls in the past week and he now holds a 4.7 point lead.
We will know the results of the 2022 Midterms within the next week. Most, if not all, races should be finished by then. Until then, we will be on the edge of our seats. Democrats will sit with concern and worry about just how bad this election will be for them. As for Republicans, given the latest polls, they will sit with hopefulness for the future of the country as the ball is their court.
