Trump Indicted… What Now?

Photo from Pexels by Colin Lloyd

Jarrett Borkowski

So it happened. After six plus years, Donald Trump has officially been indicted on 34 felony charges, making him the first former president and presidential candidate to be criminally charged. These specific charges revolve around the alleged falsifying of business documents connected to payments made to adult film star Stormy Daniels over an affair she had with the former president. Now these are all allegations, but there is decent evidence out there to point these as truthful allegations. All things considered though, this won’t be a huge set of charges. At most, it appears Trump would be hit with a few fines and is unlikely to face any jail time.

So what does this mean? Is Trump doomed in the Republican Primary? If not, how does this affect his chances in a general election? These are some important questions to ask and here is how I see it playing out.

First things first, I feel that this has locked up Trump for a primary win. Polls since the indictment have greatly favored Trump. In fact, Ron DeSantis, who is considered to be Trump’s biggest competition, is now in danger of being overtaken by Liz Cheney. The fact of the matter is that the indictment has lit a fire under the right and far right voting base. A lot of them see Trump as being targeted, so much so that Democrats don’t want him running. Many DeSantis supporters have started to shift back to Trump. However, moderate Republicans and centrists have been put off by the indictment. This can be seen in the increase in support for Liz Cheney. Cheney was a vocal critic of Trump, especially near the end of his presidency. Now, Cheney doesn’t seem to have a chance of winning the nomination, but it demonstrates that, while more radical members of the GOP are growing in their support for Trump, the indictment has potentially soured the former president’s relationship with moderate voters.

Now looking at the general election, Trump seems dead in the water. Going back to the decrease in support from moderates shown in Liz Cheney’s increased approval rating, the independent vote is almost certainly going to turn against Trump. No matter what, he will be slammed as a criminal until the election. In fact, some Republican candidates in the primary could attack Trump as a criminal. If DeSantis does run and targets Trump as a criminal, then his voting base could become alienated with Trump. This could result in an effect similar to what happened with Democrats in 2016. After Bernie Sanders lost to Hillary Clinton, many supporters of the Vermont Senator were upset and just refused to vote. This could happen again with Republicans. With centrists and independents seeming to shift away from Trump, as well as the potential for a divided Republican voting base, it looks that it would be difficult for Trump to flip enough voters from 2020 to change the outcome.

Though Trump’s indictment, many see this as a great thing for the former president, and while it will likely boost his support in his base, he is almost certainly losing support among the key borderline swing voters. Election season is still far away and Trump has some more legal fights ahead, including a civil lawsuit later this month out of New York and a potential racketeering charge out of Georgia. The road ahead is uncertain, but it is good to analyze what has happened and how it could affect the future.