NFL Draft Prospect Spotlight: QB CJ Stroud - Ohio State

Photo from Ohio State Buckeyes.

Rishi Kothinti

CJ Stroud has been the most doubted quarterback of this class up to this point in his career. Despite being the only quarterback in his college’s history to have two seasons result in a Heisman finalist nod, analysts continue to question if he has what it takes to perform at the NFL level. But being doubted is nothing new to the Ohio State star. Since his high school days, Stroud has always stepped up to the occasion and showed up in the biggest of moments. In his junior year of high school, Stroud was just a three-star recruit with almost no scholarship offers when he got an invite to the Elite 11 quarterback camp. This is a camp headlined by some of the country’s best high school quarterbacks and as a result, brings in scouts and coaches from all over America. Stroud was invited as a reserve and wasn’t even supposed to get playing time in this camp, but he surprised everyone and took the camp by storm. Stroud beat out Bryce Young (who at the time was one of the best quarterbacks in the nation) to be the starter on his team and used that opportunity to play the best football of his life. He ended up winning the Elite 11 7 on 7 tournament and took home the MVP. Then, he used this success as a stepping stone for a great senior season which earned him a scholarship to The Ohio State University. Fast forward three years later and once again the pressure was on for Stroud. Following a tough loss against Michigan, Stroud was asked to step up and figure out a way to pull an upset against the powerhouse that is the Georgia Bulldogs. Throughout the season, he had played good football but never reached the elite level that would make him worthy of a top pick in this year’s draft. This led many to believe that he would shrink under the pressure of such a big game and playing against a defense that had been the best in the nation. Boy were they wrong. Stroud had the best game of his collegiate career and, despite a heartbreaking loss, scouts realized that there is more potential in him than they ever thought. That has been the story of Stroud’s career thus far. When the lights are the brightest, he shows up.

Bio

Age: 21

Height: 6’3

Weight: 215 lbs

Analysis

When I watch CJ Stroud, there is one aspect to his game that stands above all others. His accuracy. In over a decade of watching football, I can confidently say that the only players I have ever seen have better accuracy than CJ Stroud at this point in their career are Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Peyton Manning. This, coupled with his incredible touch on the ball, is what makes him so dangerous at the collegiate level and why I believe he could be incredible at the NFL level. 

Another very translatable aspect of Stroud’s game is his ability to read the field. Stroud gets through his progressions and reads with ease and rarely makes the wrong read or makes many mistakes. However, he also shows a willingness to take shots and give his receivers a chance to make plays. This ability to read the field makes Stroud deadly against soft zones especially when he has a receiver who is able to find the soft spots. For example, in the Rose Bowl against Utah in 2021, he threw for 573 yards and 6 touchdowns in a game where Utah’s defense ran a soft zone throughout. He struggled slightly in the first quarter but as the game went on, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, his top receiver, began to find the holes in Utah’s zones and CJ Stroud began to find him. This led to Utah having to adjust and play a little tighter which then gave way for Stroud to begin throwing the ball deep where he hit multiple 20+ yard plays. 

Stroud also shows an ability to throw with great anticipation. Time and time again in his film, there will be receivers that Stroud has to throw open and players that look covered but Stroud will still be able to hit them and make a play. This is especially prevalent when Stroud throws out routes, corner routes, and basically anything going toward the sideline. Stroud will release the ball before his receiver has even made his cut but it will be put in a perfect position nearly every time by the time the receiver gets to his spot. However, sometimes, Stroud can go a little far with his anticipation. He can tend to just expect his receivers to have a step on their defenders and he will throw it without even taking the time to decide if making that throw is the right decision on that play. This weakness is what led to most of his interceptions throughout the season. 

The last major strength I saw from Stroud during his time at Ohio State was his ability to make seam throws. A large part of this comes from his ability to manipulate safeties. Against Michigan this year, Stroud made an incredible play where he threw a 50-yard seam shot to Emeka Egbuka. When you watch the play, Stroud looks off the safety whose job it was to stay in the seam where the ball ended up being thrown. The fear of Stroud’s accuracy sends safeties scrambling to get to a certain spot and that gives Stroud the option to manipulate and trick them into going into the wrong spots. While some of this may come from the Ohio State scheme, I think that Stroud’s execution of it is very effective. 

Looking at some of CJ Stroud’s weaknesses, the number one thing that pops off the tape is his inability to handle pressure. When the pocket is collapsing, Stroud does a great job of standing tall and delivering an accurate pass. However, when the pocket breaks down, and he has to create something out of nothing, he crumbles. His PFF grade in a clean pocket is 93.4 (one of the best in the nation), but this number plummets when Stroud is put under pressure. All of a sudden his grade drops to a 42. This is not just a one-play issue either. When teams put consistent pressure on him, he tends to lose his confidence and forget his fundamentals. Normally a player who is smooth and confident in the pocket becomes jittery and starts to have poor footwork. This was seen clearest against Notre Dame in the first game of the season this year. They were able to get consistent pressure on Stroud and for the first three-quarters of the game, he struggled mightily. He did figure things out toward the end and got Ohio State the win but his weaknesses were on full display. 

One aspect of Stroud’s game that could mightily help with his ability to handle pressure is his ground game. Stroud has sneaky athleticism and, when he wants to, can pick up some good yardage on scrambles. However, he often seems afraid and unwilling to run the football and this leads to sacks, interceptions, and throwaways that almost always result in negative plays for OSU. Along with his scrambling ability, Stroud’s pocket presence has room for improvement. He shows flashes of being able to detect pressure and step up in the pocket and this is usually when he has his best plays and best games. However, this trait of his is extremely inconsistent game to game and play to play. When rushers are blitzing him from the blind side, Stroud will often try to stand in the pocket but will end up getting sacked because he didn't feel the pressure coming. While a lot of quarterbacks struggle with this, Stroud seems to have it happen in the clutch and big moments a lot of the time. 

Lastly, in the past decade, the NFL has been dominated by strong-arm quarterbacks. Players like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen have transformed what teams look for in a quarterback. In a world where teams look for elite arm talent in every quarterback, CJ Stroud falls just short. While his arm strength is good, it is not great and he doesn’t have the generational arm talent that a prospect like Anthony Richardson or Will Levis does. Regardless, I don’t see this as something that will be a major issue at the next level. Players like Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Geno Smith have all been effective passers despite having mediocre arm talent so there’s no reason to believe that Stroud cannot as well. 

Despite all these downsides to CJ Stroud as a prospect, there is one exception. In the College football semifinals against Georgia, CJ Stroud had one of the best games of his college career. Every doubt, weakness, and failure that he had shown in the regular season was a strength for him in this game. He handled the pressure like a seasoned NFL veteran, had incredible pocket presence, and made multiple game-changing plays out of structure showing just how good he could be at his peak. He even became an aggressive runner in the fourth quarter picking up nearly 40 yards. I only wish he would have unlocked this part of his game earlier in this game and earlier this year. The only question now is whether or not the team who drafts CJ Stroud will get the regular season version or the version that we saw against Georgia. I am of the community that believes that the Georgia game was a stepping stone for Stroud rather than a fluke.

Takeaway

CJ Stroud has the chance to be great. The general consensus that CJ Stroud is a one-dimensional prospect who doesn't have a high ceiling is arbitrary and unfair. People who watch the film can see that Stroud has the ability to play quarterback at an elite level and when he builds chemistry with his receivers can become deadly. He also shows all the character traits necessary to be an NFL player. His leadership, character, and ability to perform on the biggest stage are exactly what teams should look for when pursuing a QB who can win them a Superbowl. In terms of his fit and what teams should be looking to draft him, CJ Stroud has shown an elite ability to bring out the best in his receivers. I believe that the team who drafts him should already have a good core in place and a receiver that Stroud can trust and make the most of. Overall, Stroud is a player that I think any team should want on their team and someone who is currently being underrated by the media. His elite traits coupled with his football IQ and clutch gene give him the chance to one day be an incredible NFL player.

Final Assessment

Pro Comparison: Geno Smith

Best Fits: Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets

Overall Prospect Rating*: 7.0/8

*If you would like to see the rating scale I use to grade prospects along with a more in-depth film review of CJ Stroud feel free to check out the link below!