A Mile-High Dream vs. A Dream Catching Heat: A 2023 NBA Finals Preview
Image from NBA.com.
Srikar Kalapala and Josh Xue
As the conference finals came to a thrilling close last weekend, the two teams remaining, the Eastern Conference representative Miami Heat and the Western Conference representative Denver Nuggets, will battle it out for the right to hoist the Larry O’Brien and become the 2023 NBA champions. Both teams took unique paths to get here, with arguably the biggest difference being their seedings. The Nuggets were at the top of the Western Conference in the regular season, with a record of 53-29, whereas the Heat had to fight through the play-in to even qualify for the playoffs with a record of 44-38. Nevertheless, both teams have earned their right to play in a best-of-seven series against each other, and in the end, one team will be left at the peak of the hill. No matter what, history will be made by the Nuggets and the Heat, so without further ado, here is your 2023 NBA Finals preview.
Denver Nuggets
Background
For the first time in franchise history, the Denver Nuggets are headed to the NBA Finals and are four wins away from winning their first title ever. Led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokić, the Nuggets have arrived on the biggest stage in basketball after numerous playoff failures. This story began back in 2014 when the Nuggets drafted Jokić with the 41st pick in the NBA Draft during a Taco Bell commercial. After averaging 10 points per game in 22 minutes in the 2015-2016 season and missing the playoffs, Jokić’s game started to ascend year after year, even getting as high as 27.1 PPG last year and earning two MVPs in the past two seasons, making him the lowest draft pick ever to win MVP. With his ascension into stardom, the Nuggets’ path to the Finals was slowly building up around their franchise cornerstone.
After drafting Jamal Murray with the 7th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Nuggets started to sniff the playoffs with a couple of ninth-place finishes and were finally able to break through in the 2018-19 season as the second seed. But after defeating the Spurs in seven games, they lost an amazing series to the Portland Trail Blazers in seven games. Although it was a bitter end to a promising season, the Nuggets looked to have a bright future ahead of them after winning their first playoff series in a decade.
The 2019-20 season showed even more progress for the Nuggets. Although they took a slight step back in the number of wins they had in the regular season (46-27), they were still able to be the third seed in a season most notably remembered as the COVID year that featured uncertainties of the season potentially ending before the bubble came into play. In the bubble, they started out with one of the best first-round series of all time as they defeated the Utah Jazz in seven games. Jamal Murray looked like a star being born in this series, averaging 31.6 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.6 rebounds per game. The Nuggets then escaped with a series win over the Los Angeles Clippers in seven games and reached just their fourth conference finals appearance in franchise history. Unfortunately for the Nuggets, they went up against the eventual champions Los Angeles Lakers, who dismantled them in five games. But just like the prior season, this season showed that the Nuggets were just a couple of pieces away from getting to the Finals.
In the next two seasons, injuries affected the core of the Nuggets, especially Jamal Murray, who tore his ACL a month before the 2021-22 playoffs. Resilience and perseverance are two words that come to mind when talking about these Nuggets, making it no surprise that this team has finally made it to the Finals.
Playoffs
In the first round, the Nuggets took on the Minnesota Timberwolves, where they faced budding star Anthony Edwards, along with a formidable frontcourt led by Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert. But even with their formidable frontcourt, the Timberwolves could not slow down Jokić, who nearly averaged a triple-double with 26.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, and 9 APG. The Nuggets’ guards also played well, led by Murray who also had an amazing series, averaging 27.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG and 6.4 APG. The Nuggets ended up making quick work of the Timberwolves with a gentleman’s sweep and advanced to the second round.
In the semifinals, the Nuggets had to take on a highly touted Phoenix Suns team led by all-time great Kevin Durant and offensive star Devin Booker. Also consisting of Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton, the Suns starting lineup was thought to be one of the best in the league. However, after trading for Kevin Durant, the Suns' depth was shaky at best, and team chemistry was also an issue for them leading up to the playoffs. After four games, the series was tied 2-2, with the home team winning in every game. Denver kept this streak alive after a 118-102 win in Game 5, pushing the series back to Phoenix in a must-win scenario for the Suns. But just like the previous year, the Suns disappeared in an elimination game, down thirty points at halftime and eventually losing the game by 25. It was a terrible performance for them and an amazing performance by the Nuggets, who were led again by their MVP that put up a triple-double with 32 points, 12 assists, and 10 rebounds. Just like that, the Nuggets were back where they left off in 2020… the conference finals.
In the conference finals, the Nuggets were tasked with the mission of exacting revenge on the Los Angeles Lakers, the team that sent them home in the same spot in 2020. Roster turnover is a phrase that comes to mind when looking at these two teams in 2023. For the Lakers, LeBron James and Anthony Davis were the only two remaining players from that 2020 run, and for the Nuggets, their trio of Jokić, Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are the ones remaining. Unlike 2020, the Lakers didn’t have as many formidable centers on their roster to defend Jokić, which meant any time without Davis meant more time for Jokić to feast. The Nuggets also upgraded their options for guarding James when they went and traded for Aaron Gordon. It proved to be the right investment two years after the trade, as it was the same Aaron Gordon that delivered the deciding defensive stop on James on the Lakers’ final possession of their year. The Nuggets didn’t just end up winning the series, they swept the Lakers. Not only is this a testament to the work that Jokić has put in the last decade, but also a huge testament to the work that the front office and coach Michael Malone have put in and invested into the Nuggets culture.
Many people underestimated the Nuggets this season. Whether it was at the start of the season, or even up to the conference finals. But one thing is clear. This team was the one seed for a good reason, and they are hungry to get their first championship in franchise history. Now, only one team stands in their way between them and their first title and Denver is looking scarier than ever before. It’s a mile-high dream, and the Nuggets are just four wins away from realizing it.
Miami Heat
Background
For the second time in the past four years, the Miami Heat are back in the NBA Finals. Led by ECF MVP Jimmy Butler, this team has defied the odds to get to this stage. But as we look back as to how this Heat roster was assembled there could be an argument made as to say that all this wasn’t by luck. Instead, it was the culmination of the right signings and tactful organization moves planned by Erik Spoelstra and the front office.
Usually, a functioning NBA team consists of a group of core players. This could be a couple of key players and a few role players and an average bench, and if they’re lucky maybe a superstar or two. However, this Miami Heat team is constructed like no other team we have seen before. Right now, NINE players are consistently touching the court, meaning that they have 9 core players ready to go out and perform on any given night. Two of these guys were waived by other teams just a couple of months ago. Kevin Love, 34, has fallen from being one of the league's stars to a solid option for the Heat to use in the frontcourt. He started the season on the Cavs, but due to a combination of lack of playing time and no guaranteed future role, he requested a trade in mid-February. Cody Zeller, once a top pick from the draft is now in a very different role in his career. Before the season started he signed a 1-year contract with the Jazz, but was waived before tipoff of opening night (wild). He didn’t get another opportunity to touch the court until the Heat picked him up in February.
Moving on, of the 9 core guys, 4 of them went undrafted, 2 of which are starters (Gabe Vincent and Max Strus). Gabe Vincent, a college basketball standout at UCSB went undrafted in 2018, in which he would spend the next 2 years in the G-league before signing with the Heat. Today, he starts over Kyle Lowry, the seasoned 17-year NBA vet, a guy the Heat signed to a $100 million contract the year before. Max Strus, undrafted in 2019 from a D-II program to the Bulls where he was waived and signed by Miami before the 2021 season. He started off as your typical wing bench player but now has made great strides as he is one of their main snipers from deep. Duncan Robinson, at this point I’m pretty sure everyone has heard of his story which by all means is a remarkable one, but after signing a record 5-year $90 million deal for an undrafted player, Robinson hasn’t quite regained the steam he once had back in the bubble of 2020. Caleb Martin, was undrafted in 2019 by the Hornets and you guessed it, waived and picked up by the Heat the year after. Of course, I can’t forget about Jimmy Butler, who was traded to the Heat in 2019 in a 4-way trade that saw Butler depart from Philly and arrive in Vice City. Their star player and a leader on and off the court, the Heat really couldn’t ask for anymore. All in all, these guys would play a significant role throughout the regular season, a season many would consider mediocre… until the playoffs.
Playoffs
Finishing the season with a 44-38 record, the Heat just barely made the play-in game. After losing the first game to the Hawks, Jimmy Butler and Co. never looked back as they steamrolled the Bulls the next game to secure the eighth seed. To our dismay, they beat Giannis and the Bucks in 5. Butler averaged 37.6 PPG, 6 RPG, and 4.6 APG. Himmy Butler they would say. MJ’s son they said. But the fact remains that the Heat beat the best team in the regular season, and they made it look easy.
In the second round, they continued their hot streak into Madison Square Garden where the Heat beat the Knicks in six games, another series where the Heat were the underdog, and another series where it didn’t matter.
They then found themselves in the ECF against the Celtics, the team that robbed them of a Finals appearance the year before. 3%... Three percent was the magic number ESPN analytics gave the Heat to reach the Finals before their series with the Celtics. Even with the Heat jumping out to a 2-0 series lead, the Celtics were still favored to win the series with odds at 65%.
“We don’t care if you’re gonna pick us to win.”
-Jimmy Butler after their Game 1 win vs Boston.
After a Game 3 that featured another Heat win, the Finals were finally within their grasp. No team had ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, and the way the Celtics were playing, it didn’t seem likely. Game 4 was a Celtics blowout, but it still didn’t feel like the Celtics were going to come back. But after a Celtics win in Game 5, and eventually a game-winning buzzer-beater in Game 6, the Celtics had suddenly tied up the series 3-3, and it came down to Game 7. The Heat were suddenly in danger of being the first team ever to blow a 3-0 series lead. But this is exactly where the Heat wanted to be. After their Game 7 loss against the Celtics in the ECF last year, Butler had this to say:
“Next year, we will have enough and we’re gonna be right back in this same situation and we’re gonna get it done.”
-Jimmy Butler
And they did have enough. Game 7 was never in question for the Heat, as they dominated the Celtics and ended up winning 103-84.
Undrafted players accounted for 50% of the Heat's points against the Celtics during the series. For context, 90% of the Celtics' points were generated by former first-round picks, a stat you won’t ever see anywhere else. The Heat just have undrafted players spawning in at this point. With Kevin Love’s injury and an unknown return date, Heywood Heisman, who was undrafted this year, has been filling in at a serviceable level. The Heat’s front office must be given credit for finding all of these hidden gems to help their team.
Just like the Nuggets, the Heat were underestimated by many people, albeit for different reasons. But the Heat have proved that they belong here. Since the start of play-in games a few years ago, the Heat are the first team in NBA history to reach the Finals as a play-in team and as an 8-seed in a normal season. The Heat culture is real and alive, and as for the Finals, it’s a dream that’s catching heat.
X-Factors
Nuggets:
Aaron Gordon
It will most likely be up to Gordon to guard Butler in a similar fashion as when he guarded LeBron. It is crucial for the Nuggets to at least neutralize Butler before he gets going. Gordon has held up fairly well against Butler in the past, but he has never faced Playoff Jimmy before now.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Caldwell-Pope is one of those players in the NBA that any team would like to have, simply because he is a battle-tested veteran that has championship experience. With all the focus that Miami will put on Jokić and Murray, Caldwell-Pope could benefit with more open looks. If he knocks them down on a consistent basis, this series will not last the full seven games.
The Nuggets’ Bench
For the majority of his career, Jokić has been the one that has carried his team when he was on the floor. That story continued this season, as the Nuggets were a plus-12.5 net differential when he was on the court compared to a minus-10.4 differential when he sat. This was a huge problem for the Nuggets and one that many teams exploited in years past. But when HC Michael Malone made the change to make Gordon as his backup center, things shifted, and although the Nuggets are still worse without Jokić, they are outscoring their opponents without him. The Nuggets have a decent bench, and they need them to perform well at the biggest stage.
Heat:
Caleb Martin
Martin played so well during the ECF, that he almost won ECF MVP over Butler. He put together a string of his best games ever against the Celtics and lost out on a 5-4 vote on MVP. Nevertheless, those performances were much needed, and they will be needed again against the Nuggets. With the certainty of the performances from Jokić and Murray, Miami will need every bit of offensive firepower it can get, and that includes Caleb Martin.
Tyler Herro
After Herro suffered a hand injury against the Bucks in the first-round, initial reports stated that he might be done for the playoffs. But just the other day, reports came out that said Herro was targeting a return for Game 3 of the Finals. This could be huge for the Heat. Although Herro doesn’t bring much to the table on the defensive side of the ball, he does bring some offensive firepower, even if it isn’t at the pre-injury level. Just like with Martin, any extra offense the Heat can get, the better their chances will be to win.
Kyle Lowry
At age 37, it would be accurate to say that Lowry is at the twilight of his career, but he still plays an important role for this Heat team. He brings leadership and championship experience to the table and also makes the most out of his time on the court. After being relegated to the bench in favor of Gabe Vincent, Lowry has been more efficient. The Heat have to take advantage of any defensive liabilities on Denver, so any type of screen action that forces those liabilities onto a player like Jimmy Butler will help Miami’s offense roll, and there are very few with a higher basketball IQ than Kyle Lowry.
Storylines
How do the Heat defend Jokić?
The two-time MVP is averaging a triple-double this postseason, with 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. Just like the Lakers, the Heat are thin at the center position, with just Bam Adebayo, whose biggest plus on the defensive side is his ability to switch. That won’t help when trying to guard a guy that’s been tearing it up in these playoffs. But HC Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches of all time, and if anyone can scheme up a way to slow down Jokić, it’s him.
How well will the Heat role players play in this series?
The role players for the Heat have shown up in big games all postseason long, and they are a huge reason why Miami has made it here as the first play-in team ever. In the third game of the Eastern Conference Finals, it was the role players that stepped up. Gabe Vincent scored a career-high 29 points, sharpshooter Duncan Robinson scored 22 points, and Caleb Martin added another 18 points. Then again in Game 7, it was Caleb Martin again showing out with a 26-point 10 rebound double-double. There is no debate that Butler has been the MVP of this Heat team, but Miami would not have gotten here without their role players, and it will be up to them to see how competitive this Finals series will be.
Will it be Jokić’s legacy or Butler’s legacy that gets elevated to a different level?
Both Jokić and Butler have been playing at an all-time level in this postseason. Butler is averaging 28.5 PPG, 7 RPG, and 5.7 APG, whereas Jokić is averaging 29.9 PPG, 13.3 RPG, and 10.3 APG in these playoffs. Both have willed their team to this spot and no matter who wins, their legacy will be cemented in the history books. If the Heat win, Butler will be given credit for one of the best playoff runs in NBA history, and if the Nuggets win, Jokić will prove to the NBA that he deserved to be a back-to-back MVP, and that he doesn’t choke when it matters the most. So who will it be?
How far up the all-time ranks does Erik Spoelstra go with another championship?
Spoelstra has been part of three championship teams with the Heat, one as an assistant, and the other two as the head coach. Given that his two rings came with the Big 3 consisting of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh, many haven’t given Coach Spo the proper credit that he deserves as he has never won a Coach of the Year award. Leading a team that was the eighth seed to an NBA championship would not only push him into company with all-time great head coaches as only the seventh head coach in NBA history to win three championships but also be a legacy booster in the public eye, with proof that he doesn’t need a superstar studded team to win.
Will the Heat become the first play-in team to ever win the Finals or will the Nuggets win their first championship?
This is the obvious one and the most talked about storyline. The Heat’s success as the eighth seed is unprecedented, and they knocked off the two best regular season teams in the NBA already. On the other hand, Denver has been playing better than ever, and it is clear that they are ready for the biggest stage. No matter what, history will be made, and both of these teams are well deserving of it.
Predictions
Nuggets in 6. The championship drought ends here for the Nuggets. Although they were very close games, the Nuggets were 2-0 against the Heat in the regular season. The Heat are an amazing team that has playoff experience and are an extremely resilient group that has what it takes to win, but I like Jokić to take over in this series and be satisfied with a tradeoff between Finals MVP and regular season MVP. Jamal Murray has also played extremely well in the playoffs, and although I expect some magic from the Heat role players in this series accompanied by the usual Playoff Jimmy, I like the Nuggets to beat the Heat in six games when it’s all said and done.
--Srikar Kalapala
Heat in 5. This pick is for the culture. After what I’ve seen from the playoffs thus far, I think I can say that the Heat are not backing out without a fight. Sure, they may lose Game 1 but Coach Spoelstra is an experienced coach and knows what to do. Accompany that with Butler’s killer mentality and leadership you’ve got a squad with nothing the lose and all of their chips in the middle. I might look like a fool making this pick when I see The Joker lift up that Finals trophy, but I sure as heck won’t be when Butler gets his chip instead. ESPN gives the Heat a 25% to win the series before Game 1 vs Denver. Who says they won’t beat the odds again? Heat in 5 for the culture.
--Josh Xue
