2023 NBA Playoffs: First Round Predictions

Picture from NBA.com.

Srikar Kalapala

One of the most prolific offensive seasons in NBA history came to a close this past week, with six of the NBA’s best players scoring more than 30 points per game. More offenses have featured small-ball lineups, straying away from the days of the elite big-man paint defenders. Teams have adapted to the style of three-point shooting, and the NBA now consists of a plethora of skilled playmakers at the guard position. The result? One of the most competitive seasons in NBA history, and uncertainty about who will make their dreams come true in the Finals.

The Eastern Conference features the three best teams in the NBA record-wise, the Milwaukee Bucks, the Boston Celtics, and the Philadelphia 76ers. All three of these teams have bonafide superstar players, and only four games separated them from each other. However, none of these teams will experience a cakewalk to the Finals, as scrappy teams with playoff experience like the Heat still lurk on the horizon, and young teams like the Cavs and the Knicks look to make their impression on the rest of the league. 

Parity is a word that comes to mind when looking at the Western Conference. Any one of these eight teams could beat the others on any given night, making every game of every series a must-watch. The Nuggets led the West with 53 wins this season, but their path to the Finals looks daunting, as they may have to face the Phoenix Suns or the Los Angeles Clippers in the second round, and one of the Kings, Lakers, Grizzlies, or the reigning champs, the Warriors, in the conference final. 

Ultimately, the 2023 NBA playoffs will be decided by the players that elevate themselves to the next level when it matters most. Which team can embrace the physicality of the playoffs and win the Larry O’Brien? Let’s find out.

1st Round Predictions:

 Eastern Conference

(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Miami Heat

Bucks in 6: Out of all of the play-in teams this was the matchup I least wanted for the Bucks, simply because of the history between these two teams in the bubble. But I believe the narration will tell a different story this year, as the Bucks face a Heat team that just hasn’t looked like themselves lately. However, Playoff Jimmy is real, and the Heat always seem to play much better in the playoffs. I like the Bucks to win this series in their quest for another title, but the Heat will keep it close.

(2) Boston Celtics vs (7) Atlanta Hawks

Celtics in 4: I don’t really see the Hawks putting up much of a fight in this one. The depth of the Celtics is nearly unmatched, and they featured the second-best offense and defense this year. Even if Trae Young catches on fire in any of these games, I still don’t expect the Hawks to take a game in this one. The Celtics are just too experienced and too good.

(3) Philadelphia 76ers vs (6) Brooklyn Nets

76ers in 5: Giving the Nets a game in this series is a little generous, given the talent disparities between these two teams. The Sixers feature MVP candidate Joel Embiid, as well as a former MVP in James Harden, and a quality supporting cast led by Tyrese Maxey. After trading away Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, the Nets now feature Mikal Bridges, who has made the best of the situation and has emerged as a star. The Sixers always seem to have a let-down game, and if Bridges gets hot, I expect the Nets to steal one at home. But overall, the Sixers shouldn’t have too much trouble in this one and should set up an exciting second-round matchup with the Celtics.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs (5) New York Knicks

Cavs in 7: This is by far the most exciting matchup in the East this year. Two young teams vying for more recognition in the NBA community feature two star guards with history from last year in Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson. Cleveland boasted the best defense in the league this year, and they will go up against the third-best offense of the Knicks. I expect Mitchell to score 30+ PPG in this series against his hometown team, and with Jalen Brunson on the other side, every game in this series is a must-watch.

Western Conference

(1) Denver Nuggets vs (8) Minnesota Timberwolves

Nuggets in 5. At a glance, this series doesn’t really seem like it should pose much of a problem to the Nuggets, but if you look closely, this has the makings of a series that could trouble Denver a lot. The Wolves feature two big-name centers in Karl Anthony-Towns and Rudy Gobert, and although Gobert has had a terrible season for the Wolves this year, he is still a note-worthy matchup with the reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. The regular season matchup was tied 2-2 between these two teams, and the Timberwolves maintained this record without KAT playing in any of these games. Anthony Edwards could also explode in this series, making every game close. In the end, however, I expect the Wolves to miss Jaden McDaniels, and despite their size, be unable to contain Jokic. Nuggets in five.

(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs (7) Los Angeles Lakers

Lakers in 6. The Grizzlies are the two-seed for a reason. They feature an up-and-coming star in Ja Morant, as well as DPOY candidate Jaren Jackson Jr. They also have one of the deepest teams in the league. So why did I pick the Lakers? Simple. The Lakers have arguably the GOAT in LeBron James. That matters. LeBron has more playoff experience than the entire Grizzlies roster, and his supporting cast has been on fire these last couple of weeks. Anthony Davis, when healthy, is still a star and a defensive beast, and the battle between him and JJJ will be the matchup to watch in this one. The young Grizzlies will make every game close, but I like the championship experience of the Lakers to win them this series.

(3) Sacramento Kings vs (6) Golden State Warriors

Warriors in 6. I will admit, the Kings being the 3rd seed in the West this year was not something that I expected and I underestimated their potential with De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis being their two best players. Coach of the Year candidate Mike Brown has come into Sacramento this year and turned a franchise that hasn’t seen the playoffs in 17 years into a legitimate contender. The Kings feature one of the best offenses in the league and are tasked with stopping arguably the two best shooters of all time on the Warriors. That sounds like a recipe for games that could break 250 points every game, making this series a must-watch. This series was probably the hardest pick for me, and in the end, I just couldn’t pick against the defending champs in the first round. However, if this series goes to seven games, I expect the Kings to pull it off at home, given the Warriors’ disastrous record on the road and Sacramento’s deafening crowd.

(4) Phoenix Suns vs (5) Los Angeles Clippers

Suns in 6: Just like the Cavs-Knicks series in the East, the 4-5 matchup in the West has the makings of a great series. These teams have no shortage of star power, with the Suns featuring their big three of KD, CP3, and Devin Booker, while the Clippers feature Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Yet the depth of the Suns after trading KD comes into question for the Suns’ playoff chances this year. However, the key factor in this series is going to be the availability of Paul George and when he will be back from injury. Rumors are that he might be out for the entire series, which doesn’t bode well for the Clippers’ chances of stopping the three offensive stars of the Suns. I like the Clippers’ chances if they can split these first two games, but nothing is certain without Paul George suiting up to play. Kawhi may be one of the best defensive players of all time, but he can’t do it all.