NFL Week 18 Predictions

Srikar Kalapala 

Before we get into this week’s predictions, I just wanted to say that the Damar Hamlin situation in the MNF game was beyond scary and that it has been great to see the amount of support he has been getting. Please keep him in your thoughts, and hopefully, he will make a speedy recovery.

Welcome to the final edition of this year’s NFL predictions. It has been a wild year with surprise teams making runs, and previous contenders getting knocked out early. There has been more parity in this league compared to years past, making a lot of games this year hard to pick. However, my record this year has managed to rival many NFL “experts”. Last week was harder to pick due to me pre-writing it due to winter break, but I still managed to get a solid enough record as the NFL season comes to an end. Thank you to everyone that read these predictions this year; getting comments about them have been very enjoyable. Before we get into these predictions, I just wanted to say that after the regular season is over, this article will be updated with more detailed statistics on my predictions at the bottom of the article. Alright without further ado, let’s get into these predictions one last time.

Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)

Chiefs. The #1 scoring offense in the league, led by MVPat, takes on Jarrett Stidham and the Las Vegas Raiders in this matchup. The last time these two teams played, the difference was one point. Patrick Mahomes had four touchdown passes in the win, all to Travis Kelce. If their last meeting was any indication, don’t write off the Raiders in this one. Last week, they were able to take the Niners to overtime, and although they still ended up losing, that was a great effort against the best defense in the league. The Chiefs’ defense is 20th in the league in giving up points and is league-worst in points given up in the red zone. I can definitely see a case for the Raiders being able to pull off the upset. I’m not sure how the NFL plans to handle the seeding situation with the Bills-Bengals game getting canceled, but they might do it based on win percentage, making this a must-win game for the Chiefs in order for them to get the #1 seed in a top-heavy AFC. Jarrett Stidham had a great performance last week despite the interceptions, but I don’t think they will be able to upset the Chiefs with the #1 seed on the line. 

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) vs. Tennessee Titans (7-9)

Jaguars. This AFC South crown comes down to this Week 18 matchup between the Titans and the Jaguars. Titans’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill is still injured for this matchup, which means Josh Dobbs will get his second start. Playing the Jaguars for a playoff spot doesn’t bode well for the Titans, as they lost to the Jaguars 36-22 back in Week 14. Trevor Lawrence was throwing the rock all over the yard, and Evan Engram had one of the best games in his career. It doesn’t help the Titans that they are the second-worst defense against tight ends and give up the worst QBR when defending receivers. The main way the Titans can win this game is to hope Derrick Henry has a huge game, and that the pass rush gets home to Lawrence even though the Jags have been very good at keeping T-Law upright. The Jags have been on fire recently, and with a budding superstar in Lawrence and the Titans being on a slide, I think there will be a new team to beat in the South next season, and they are the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8) vs. Cleveland Browns (7-9)

Steelers. Somehow, even with all of their struggles this season, Mike Tomlin’s streak of never having a losing record is still alive. With their win over the Ravens last week, the Steelers are now 8-8 and have a reasonable path to making the playoffs. If they beat the Browns, the Jets beat the Dolphins, and the Bills beat the Patriots, the Steelers will finish as the seventh seed in the AFC. None of those outcomes seem impossible, and it is crazy to think that after a 2-6 start, Mike Tomlin has willed this team into the playoff hunt. In order to keep his streak alive, his team must beat a Browns team that they lost 29-17 back in Week 3. Although they lost by two possessions in that game, I still think that they will be able to win due to a couple of reasons. Firstly, TJ Watt was injured in this game. Watt has been the MVP for this Steelers team as they have been 7-2 with him and 1-6 without him. Furthermore, both starting quarterbacks are different for this game. Kenny Pickett has shown some flashes in the last couple of weeks, whereas Deshaun Watson has still looked really rusty despite his performance last week against the Commanders. I expect the pass rush to get home to Watson at least a couple of times, en route to a Steelers win.

Cincinnati Bengals (11-4) vs. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Bengals. With the Bills-Bengals game being canceled last week, the Cincinnati Bengals are your 2022 AFC North champs. If the Bengals lost to the Bills last week, this game would have been for the division crown, but as the Bengals will have a better win percentage than the Ravens even if they lose, they get the division title. There have been rumors in league circles that if the Ravens do win this game, the site of a potential Bengals-Ravens will be determined by a coin-toss, as the Ravens will have swept the Bengals on the year and have been robbed of the chance at a division title if the Bills ended up beating the Bengals last week. However, I don’t think any of that will be necessary, as I don’t think the Ravens will beat the Bengals in this game. Although they were able to clamp up the Bengals in their last matchup, the Bengals have just been a different beast as the hottest team in the league. Burrow will look to set the season completion percentage record in this game, and without Lamar Jackson, I don’t think this Ravens offense will be able to keep pace. Their defense can only do so much.

Miami Dolphins (8-8) vs. New York Jets (7-9)

Dolphins. This is a really hard pick. I was going to pick the Jets until I heard that Mike White might not play. Without Tua, the Dolphins offense has taken a step back, and even Teddy Bridgewater is not a lock to play this game. A playoff spot is on the line for the Dolphins, who, after starting 8-3, have lost 5 straight games and are now 8-8. The Jets looked like they might make a run to the playoffs earlier in this season, but are now relegated to playing the role of spoiler against their rivals. The Jets defense can only do so much, and I have much more confidence in the capabilities of the Dolphins’ offense compared to its Jets counterpart. 

Chicago Bears (3-13) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

Vikings. I don’t think any Bears fan will be rooting for their team to win in this game. With a Houston win over Indy, the Bears would move to the #1 spot in the draft. Although they don’t need to draft a quarterback, they could trade down and get a king’s ransom in return. Justin Fields not being able to play in this game helps their cause, as well as the Vikings playing for seeding in the playoffs. Give me the Vikings in a blowout.

Buffalo Bills (12-3) vs. New England Patriots (8-8)

Bills. In order to get into the playoffs, the Patriots must find a way to beat a team that has been akin to a “big brother” for them in the last couple of years. This isn’t the only scenario the Pats get in, but the other one requires a multitude of other results to go their way, which I think is improbable. It is hard to know how shaken up the Bills will be emotionally due to the situation last week, but I think that they will play well enough to beat the Patriots. A saving grace for the Patriots has been how good their defense has been this year, and they were even able to hold the Bills to 24 points. But with their inefficient offense, I think the Bills will clamp up and boost their chances of getting that #1 seed in the AFC.

Atlanta Falcons (6-10) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)

Falcons. It is expected that the Bucs will not be playing their starters for the entire game in this matchup, and although Brady might get some playing time, I don’t expect him to be out there the whole game. The Falcons nearly beat the Bucs in their last meeting even with questionable refereeing in the game. Ridder has been looking better and better in his starts, and I think the Falcons will be able to get a win here, moving Tampa to 8-9 and a division winner with a losing record.

New Orleans Saints (7-9) vs. Carolina Panthers (6-10)

Panthers. The last time the Saints had double digits in their loss column was all the way back in 2005 in the Hurricane Katrina season. The Saints lost to the Panthers all the way back in Week 3, and are looking for their revenge. This game would have had division implications if the Panthers were able to hang on to a 14-0 lead over the Bucs last week, but now this game is pretty much meaningless. This is a tough pick, but I expect the rushing attack of the Panthers to feast in this matchup despite the Saints’ stout defense en route to a Panthers win.

Indianapolis Colts (4-11-1) vs. Houston Texans (2-13-1)

Texans. If you erase last week from memory, the Texans have actually been playing some decent football in the last several weeks. The Colts have failed to be a cohesive team all year, and starting Nick Foles hasn’t been fruitful in the last couple of weeks. They are now going back to Sam Ehlinger at quarterback, and although he has shown flashes, he hasn’t been very good either. After winning his first game as the head coach, Jeff Saturday has lost every game. The Texans should lose this game because it holds the #1 spot in the draft right now, but I think they will somehow Texan it and win this game.

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) vs. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)

49ers. The Niners are still playing for the #1 seed here. If the Eagles lose and the Niners win, the Niners would be the #1 seed in the NFC. The Niners boast the best defense in the league, led by DPOY nominee Nick Bosa. The Cardinals haven’t been good at all this year, and with no Kyler, I don’t think the Cardinals have a chance. Give me the 49ers in a blowout.

Washington Commanders (7-8-1) vs. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

Cowboys. With their loss last week paired with the Packers win over the Vikings, the Commanders are eliminated from playoff contention. Apparently, HC Ron Rivera didn’t know that, which raised eyebrows among the NFL community. The decision to start Carson Wentz looks more than questionable now, and Washington will have a lot of questions to answer in the offseason. The Commanders have made the decision to evaluate Sam Howell for this game, who earns his first start of the year. They face a Cowboys team that suddenly has a lot to play for after the Eagles loss to the Saints last week. If the Cowboys win this game, and the Niners and Eagles both lose, Dallas would get the #1 seed and a first-round bye. I don’t see any reason for them not to win this game, so give me Dallas by double-digits.

Seattle Seahawks (8-8) vs. Los Angeles Rams (5-11)

Seahawks. The Seahawks drew the short end of the stick when the Week 18 schedule came out. In order for them to make the playoffs, they must beat the Rams, and then hope Detroit beats the Packers. The problem is that if the Seahawks beat the Rams, then the Lions would get eliminated from the playoffs, and perhaps they wouldn’t try as hard. I doubt this is the case, however, as Dan Campbell has been insistent on bringing a winning culture to Detroit, so I think despite the result of this game, the Lions will still play to win. None of this will matter unless the Seahawks can beat the Rams though. The Rams have notably been a thorn in the side of the Seahawks for a number of years now, as it seems a lot of their games come down to the wire. The good news for the Seahawks is that the Rams have fallen off a cliff this year. The Rams have 11 losses this season, the most by any reigning Super Bowl champion ever. Some of this is due to the sheer amount of injuries that the Rams have had to endure, but even before the brunt of these injuries, they weren’t that good. I like the Seahawks to take care of their business and hope that the Lions will beat the Packers.

Philadelphia Eagles (13-3) vs. New York Giants (9-6-1)

Eagles. Uh oh. With back-to-back losses, the Eagles now stare at the possibility of losing the #1 seed after boasting the best record in the NFL for the entire season. If the Eagles lose to the Giants, and some other results don’t go their way, the Eagles could be looking at getting the #5 seed after starting the season 13-1. The good news for the Eagles is that the Giants don’t have anything to play for as the Giants are locked into the #6 seed in the playoffs no matter what the result of this game is. I don’t expect all of the Giants’ starters to play the whole game in this one, making it easier for an Eagles win. Add in a potential return of Jalen Hurts, and I think the Eagles will stave off everyone else in the NFC and keep their #1 seed and their first-round bye. 

Denver Broncos (4-12) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)

Chargers. HC Brandon Staley told reporters that he doesn’t plan on resting his starters in this game. These two teams played earlier in the season, in a game that turned out to be an overtime slugfest. The Chargers ended up winning that game with heroics from an injured Dustin Hopkins, but I think they will be able to beat the Broncos more handily in this matchup and hand the Broncos their 13th loss of the season. The Chargers face an interesting dilemma in the playoffs. Assuming the Jaguars win, as a #5 seed the Chargers would face a Jags team that blew them out earlier in the season, or as a #6 seed, they would face either the Bills or Bengals, two powerhouses in the AFC. 

Green Bay Packers (8-8) vs. Detroit Lions (8-8)

Packers. 1%. That’s the chance the Packers had to make the playoffs after starting the year 4-8. After losing to the Eagles in primetime, and Aaron Rodgers getting a rib injury in that game, many believed the Packers season to be over. But after a come-from-behind win against the Bears, the ball just kept rolling, and everything the Packers needed to go their way has, for the most part, gone their way. The emergence of Christian Watson has added a dynamic to this offense that wasn’t present earlier in the season. After demolishing the Vikings last week, the Packers now face a “win and in” situation. Beat the Lions, and they are the #7 seed in the NFC. Lose, and you go home. CB Jaire Alexander has said that this team has been in playoff mode for weeks now, and that mindset has to continue for this week. This Lions team is not an easy out. The Lions started this season 1-6 and roared back to 8-8. Aaron Rodgers has said that these Lions aren’t the “same old” Lions. Their offense has been amazing compared to years past, and they also beat the Packers earlier in the season 15-9. Rodgers threw 3 picks in that game, in what was the rock bottom of this season. But now the Lions must come to Green Bay. QB Jared Goff has struggled in cold-weather games. With the Packers’ defense playing the way it has during this win-streak, and the fact that the Rodgers-LaFleur combination in December/January has been great, give me the Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to rise out of the ashes and find a way to make the playoffs. No matter what, never count out Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Why? He’s a baaaad man.

Statistics

Overall Record: 177-92-2 (65.3%)

Week 18 Record: 13-3

Best Pick: Jaguars over Ravens (Week 12)

Worst Pick: Colts over Jaguars (Week 2)

Best Week: Week 9 (11-2)

Worst Week: Week 10  (5-9)

Team I was best at predicting: Chiefs (15-2)